“Looking ahead, 2026 is expected to bring a gradual recovery, particularly after the first quarter. Policy clarity, sustained infrastructure spending, and stabilising housing and auto demand are likely to support consumption, with overall steel demand projected to grow 7–9%.” Vinaya Varma, MD, mjunction services limited
India’s steel sector closed 2025 on a subdued footing as slowing demand, margin pressure and weak exports weighed on market sentiment throughout the year. Flat steel producers were hit hardest, with auto and appliance demand softening and imports from Southeast Asia capping any price upside. Long steel fared relatively better on continued government infrastructure spending, though new capacities kept prices in check. Raw material markets saw intermittent volatility, but iron ore remained firm on strong domestic consumption. Met coke and scrap markets stayed rangebound despite rising global coking coal prices. Capacity additions continued across both integrated and secondary mills, further intensifying competition. Exports remained weak for most of the year amid global price pressure and ongoing CBAM-related uncertainty.
Looking ahead, 2026 is expected to bring a gradual recovery, particularly after the first quarter. Policy clarity, sustained infrastructure spending, and stabilizing housing and auto demand are likely to support consumption, with overall steel demand projected to grow 7–9%. However, margins may remain tight in the early part of the year due to elevated competition and volatile raw material costs. Exports could improve modestly as spreads strengthen in key markets, though CBAM compliance will shape long-term competitiveness. With overcapacity risks rising and sustainability becoming a central focus, producers are expected to accelerate investments in energy efficiency, scrap processing and green steel technologies. Overall, while 2025 ends with caution, industry sentiment points to a more constructive 2026—led by policy support, demand recovery and strategic shifts across the steel value chain.”
Coal Exchange launch Likely in 2026
Continuing with the government’s focus on liberalization of the coal sector, 2025 saw the draft regulations for the proposed coal exchange getting released for feedback. Even as the Coal Ministry continues to study these comments and feedback to finalize the rules, the Ministry has formalized the appointment of Coal Controller Organization as the regulator the exchange for coal and lignite through a recent Gazette notification.
Considering the successive steps being taken by the government, the coal exchange is likely to be launched in the early part of 2026. This digital marketplace is intended to shift coal sales from multiple routes – administered, auctioned or private deals – to a unified trading platform with transparent price discovery and standardized clearing and settlement. This will structurally change how coal is marketed and priced in India, particularly benefiting commercial and captive miners while challenging existing e‑auction and bilateral sale models.
On the decarbonization front, coal continues to face challenges from falling costs and tariffs of energy from environment-friendly sources and increasing generation of renewable energy. While demand for thermal energy remains robust, there is growing competition from commercial mines as the auctioned mines come onstream progressively.
The author is Vinaya Varma, MD, mjunction services limited
